COGNITIVE BIASES AND MENTAL TRAPS IN OCCUPATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WITHIN OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Abstract

The analysis of ten most critical mental traps (normalization of deviance, wishful thinking driven by confirmation bias, distortion of reality by memory, illusion of invulnerability, authority bias, sunk cost fallacy, hindsight bias, illusion of control and the participant bias in incidents, status quo bias, and survivorship bias) demonstrates that they systematically distort the perception of hazards, hazardous factors, and occupational risks at all levels of management, from operational to strategic. The study provides an analysis of the most critical mental traps that distort the perception of hazards, hazardous factors, and occupational risks within occupational health and safety management systems. An interdisciplinary system-cognitive approach was applied, combining theoretical-analytical, modeling, and predictive methods. Mental traps, as predictable cognitive patterns, lead to distorted risk assessment, neglect of weak safety signals, and an increased likelihood of accident and disaster development, including events such as the Challenger and Columbia shuttle disasters, Deepwater Horizon, Tenerife, Bhopal, and others. The greatest impact on the distortion of hazard perception and the underestimation of occupational risks is exerted by mental traps that operate over the long term and have a cumulative effect, including normalization of deviance and incidents (a shift in acceptable risk boundaries within an organization), the sunk cost fallacy (preventing the termination of hazardous actions in an attempt to recover invested resources), wishful thinking driven by confirmation bias (systematic disregard of warning signals), and the illusion of control combined with participant bias (a false sense of safety due to the absence of incidents), among others. The scientific novelty lies in the theoretical justification, systematization, and ranking of the ten most critical mental traps according to their impact on the distortion of occupational risk perception across all levels of management (from operational staff to top management), taking into account their cumulative and synergistic effects. The practical significance lies in the possibility of directly applying the obtained results to improve the effectiveness of occupational health and safety management systems across enterprises in various industries