CALCULATION OF THE RISK OCCUPATIONAL INJURY DUE TO FATIGUE

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to identify and mathematically substantiate the cause-and-effect relationship between the development of fatigue in workers of critical infrastructure facilities and the increase in the level of occupational injuries. Methodology: An adapted Swiss cheese model was used to calculate the probability of failure of protective barriers. It was found that the probability of failure of barriers increases by 4–16 times under the influence of military and psychosocial factors. The article provides a quantitative assessment of the risk of occupational injuries of critical infrastructure workers caused by chronic fatigue. An adapted Swiss cheese model was used for modeling in combination with the Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) and Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) methods. The probabilities of failure of organizational, physiological, diagnostic, and technical and supervisory barriers in the stressful conditions of martial law were determined. The coefficients of error probability growth under the influence of military, meteorological, and psychosocial factors were calculated. It was established that the total risk of injury reaches 3.6–16.8% per critical operation, which corresponds to a critically unacceptable level. Results: The overall risk of injury is 3.6–16.8% per critical operation, which corresponds to a critically unacceptable level. It is proven that the current labor organization (60-hour work week, no rotation) is the main determinant of the increase in injury rates in the energy sector of Ukraine in 2025–2026. Scientific novelty: Adaptation of the «Swiss Cheese Model» model to assess the convergence of military, meteorological and psychosocial factors. Practical value: Recommendations have been developed to preserve personnel potential, including mandatory rotation, medical screening, and revision of Law No. 2136-IX.