SYNERGETIC MODEL FOR INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF MINE RISK IN THE CIVIL PROTECTION SYSTEM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/3041-2080/2026-7-31Keywords:
mine risk, mine hazard, mine action, civil protection, humanitarian demining, risk-based approach, synergistic model, integral risk assessmentAbstract
The article examines the problem of mine risk assessment within the civil protection system under conditions of large-scale contamination of the territory of Ukraine with explosive hazards. It is substantiated that existing approaches to mine hazard assessment are predominantly linear and fragmented, which limits their ability to fully account for the interaction of technical, territorial, social, and managerial factors. The current state of mine action activities is analyzed, along with contemporary approaches to risk assessment in humanitarian demining and complex systems management. It is established that mine risk should be considered as an integral characteristic formed through the interaction of multiple factors. The methodological basis of the study includes systemic and risk-based approaches, as well as methods of analysis, generalization, expert assessment, and elements of mathematical modeling. Based on these approaches, a synergistic model for the integral assessment of mine risk is developed. The model accounts for the nonlinear effects of factor interaction and enables the formalization of hazard levels within a specific territory. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of an integral mine risk indicator that incorporates the synergistic interaction of technical, territorial, social, and managerial factors. A factor structure of mine risk is proposed, including technical, territorial, social, and managerial components. Scenario-based modeling is conducted for three typical environments: urban areas, agricultural lands, and forest zones. The results of model validation demonstrate that the integral level of mine risk is determined not only by individual factor values but also by their combination and interaction. It is shown that the proposed model can be applied for risk-based territorial ranking, prioritization of demining activities, optimization of resource allocation, and support of decision-making within the civil protection system
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